@TechReport{Almeida:2005:FoMoUr,
               author = "Almeida, Cl{\'a}udia Maria de",
                title = "Forecast Models of Urban Growth and Land Use Change to Assess 
                         Human Vulnerability Resulting from Threats to Water Resources",
          institution = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais",
                 year = "2005",
                 type = "PRP",
               number = "INPE--/",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
             keywords = "X.",
             abstract = "ABSTRACT Models for the simulation of urban land use change have 
                         continuously undergone refinements in the latest decades, what 
                         rendered them powerful tools to support decision-making, policy 
                         making and initiatives in the realm of town planning. They may 
                         meet the most diverse ends, such as the monitoring and control of 
                         urban growth, evaluation of infrastructure investment needs, 
                         identification of conflicts between urban expansion and site 
                         suitability, amongst others. This paper is committed to present a 
                         simulation model of urban land use change for the town of Bauru, 
                         located in the central west of S{\~a}o Paulo State, Brazil. The 
                         thereof generated forecasts indicate how the uncontrolled urban 
                         growth may represent serious risks to the water spring of the town 
                         and provide thus subsidies for assessing the human dimensions of 
                         the vulnerability resulting from threats to water resources due to 
                         processes of land use change taking place in the urban fringe of 
                         Bauru. RESUMO Os modelos para a simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o da 
                         mudan{\c{c}}a do uso da terra urbana sofreram continuamente 
                         refinamentos nas {\'u}ltimas d{\'e}cadas, o que os tornou 
                         ferramentas poderosas para apoiar a tomada de decis{\~o}es, a 
                         formula{\c{c}}{\~a}o de pol{\'{\i}}ticas e as iniciativas no 
                         dom{\'{\i}}nio do urbanismo. Eles podem atender aos fins mais 
                         diversos, como monitoramento e controle do crescimento urbano, 
                         avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de necessidades de investimentos em 
                         infra-estrutura, identifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o de conflitos entre 
                         expans{\~a}o urbana e adequa{\c{c}}{\~a}o do local, entre 
                         outros. Este artigo est{\'a} empenhado em apresentar um modelo de 
                         simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o de mudan{\c{c}}a de uso da terra urbana 
                         para a cidade de Bauru, localizada no centro oeste do estado de 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo, Brasil. As suas previs{\~o}es geradas indicam 
                         como o crescimento urbano descontrolado pode representar 
                         s{\'e}rios riscos para a fonte de {\'a}gua da cidade e, 
                         portanto, subsidios para avaliar as dimens{\~o}es humanas da 
                         vulnerabilidade resultante das amea{\c{c}}as aos recursos 
                         h{\'{\i}}dricos devido aos processos de mudan{\c{c}}a de uso da 
                         terra que ocorrem no Franja urbana de Bauru.F.",
          affiliation = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divis{\~a}o de 
                         Sensoriamento Remoto (INPE, DSR)",
             language = "pt; en.",
                pages = "17",
                  ibi = "6qtX3pFwXQZ3r59YD6/JL3Cr",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/6qtX3pFwXQZ3r59YD6/JL3Cr",
        urlaccessdate = "13 maio 2024"
}